Thursday, 19 October 2017

Around the Traps 20/10/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nuttin not happy Dave!😢
  • Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

Trump again

Trump again showing in essence no class at all.
so what do we know about him as President.

  • He is old, fat and lazy. 
  • He rarely understands his one page very generalised briefs  
  • He loses his concentration very easily
  • He gets into tantrums very easily
  • He lies all the time ( see HERE and HERE in more detail) 
  • He doubles down every time he is caught out.
  • He does not possess empathy 
  • He is a very poor speaker
  • He is easily the most stupid person to be in the office in my living memory ( see transcript of talk with Our PM)
  • He is a woeful negotiator ( see transcript of talk with Mexican President)
  • He pays more attention to Fox and Friends and Breitbart than to his own advisors
  • He is a sucker for fake news. (See above) 
  • He hates the continual leaking within his Administration
Add to that what we knew before hand
  • He trades in his wives for the new model
  • He is ill informed and ignorant on most topics
  • He has never grown up
  • He has little understanding of social mores
  • He regularly abuses people
  • He hates criticism
  • He hates being found out
Let us take but one example. He threatens North Korea with military force yet everyone knows he will not use force because of the deadly consequences for South Korea. Is he that stupid?

LUNATICS still support him though. Mind you they are as ignorant and ill informed as he.

Tuesday, 17 October 2017

The National Energy Target

The Government announced its National Energy Target yesterday.  We still have plenty of detail to come.

I agree with David Blowers who says how-the-national-energy-guarantee-could-work-better-than-a-clean-energy-target.

Has Turnbull and Frydenburg given us a clean energy target through other means.
 I totally agree when Blowers states  'The National Energy Guarantee is not the best policy solution. A carbon price imposed on electricity generators may have avoided the need for either of the two “guarantees” contained in the NEG. But the political reality is that a carbon price of any sort is not going to be adopted in Australia any time soon. '

A price of carbon is easily the best solution. This was recognised by John Howard way back in 2007.It means coal is no longer subsidised by consumers because their externalities are NOT internalised.
People who believe in markets would support such a solution. It is a great pity this no longer exists in the Liberal party. It has of course rarely existed in the National party.


John Quiggin
Alan Pears et al
Frank Jotzo and Salim Mazouz

I should add please note that john shows how different dispatchable power is to base load power. Abbott will be furious.
Also note the ALP have NOT said they will oppose this. I doubt if they will. They will make much of no modelling at all but we might just might have a bi-partisan policy here. Thanks you Malcolm.

Further Update.

The benefits of cap and trade are  larger than once thought

Monday, 16 October 2017

Are 631 coal plants being built around the world?

I read this a while ago and thought this made little sense. The economics could not be that different to what it is in Australia.

Adam Morton examines this claim and finds it wanting.  There is a large difference between units and plants for example.

Related to this is why the war on coal is over and coal lost.

Also Environmental Economics on wither-coal-despite-all-attempts-to-the-contrary-whats-next

Sunday, 15 October 2017

Greg Jericho absolutely flays Tony Abbott

Greg Jericho goes to town on Tony Abbott's speech.

I was wondering when someone would point out to this dunce and other deniers that a warming world has actually been examined and that it causes more problems than solutions. A warmer Europe might be okay for some but try telling those in South East Asia that a warmer world is good for everyone!

The more and more Tony Abbott seeks publicity the more and more sillier he gets hypocrisy aside. He was PM remember!

How come Abbott and his fellow travellers in the Government have no idea that new solar and wind generated power is lower coast power than a new coal power plant. Have they ever thought why no-one has put up an idea of putting together a new coal plant?

Thursday, 12 October 2017

Around the Traps 13/10/17

It is time for Around the Traps again

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 11 October 2017

Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve

From last friday's Around the Traps.  Roger Farmer writes about keynesian-economics-without-the-phillips-curve.
He finds when you replace the phillips curve with his farmer monetary model  policy works a hellva lot better!

Very interesting

Tuesday, 10 October 2017

We nearly blew it

I kept on thinking last night we would lose.
We created plenty of chances as per usual but we kept on missing those chances as per usual. We gifted Syria an early goal and they took it.

As I have said preciously We have been very unimpressive since winning the Asia cup after which Ange in explicitly changed the system. Whilst we still create chance we are leaky at the back.

The other thing is his selections. Why does he like Brad Smith. He is getting little game time and is a poor player. He was lucky he got injured last night and Mooy replaced him. Mooy played very well. Indeed for the first time Mooy and Rogic clicked in the midfield.

You cannot have Leckie and Kruse in the same team.He is fortunate Leckie cannot play in the first leg. He needs to work out how to attack down the left hand side. He also  needs to get a defensive mid fielder in a hurry.

 Will we get to Russia.


HERE is a take on last night

Monday, 9 October 2017

Xenophon goes back to south australia

Having had another Jury service come and go I find Nick Xenophon leaving the Senate to go back to south Australia to fight for a lower house seat.

Why is he doing this. Me thinks the worst that will occur is he will become kingmaker after the next South Australian election ( which is for a fixed term). At best he will become Premier!!

The odds favour the former. his party may win some 'marginal seats on preferences where both major parties preference his party so if they lose the other major party doesn't win. I suspect his party will win several 'safe' liberal seats on Labor party preferences. I doubt if his party will win many 'safe' Labor party seats though.

This makes the next SA election very interesting with no party likely to win a majority of seats so either a coalition will emerge , unlikely in my view, or a minority government will occur where Xenophon gives them support of a confidence motion but negotiates on most legislation.

Interesting times

Tuesday, 3 October 2017

Around the Traps 13/10/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.
Bugger I hit publish instead of save. Never mind I will just continually update!

Northern  America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

A couple of things

A bit busy at present so I have decided to copy Steve from Brisbane

SSM debate
The number of  people who have 'voted' thus far is a bit over 50%. This is disappointing. There is a piece of paper where all you have to do is vote yes or no and then post it. Why are people waiting so long?
Trump is a stirring orator
Soony had a Katesy moment yesterday in saying Trump is a rousing orator. I haven't been able to stop laughing at this. What next a master negotiator?
Budget came in better then anticipated. Morrison says it is because of cuts to welfare. Say what. The cyclical part of the budget improves IF the economy is doing the same. You cannot cut the cyclical part of the budget only the structural part.
We have lost our coach. Hopefully we can get a decent one soon.
Tom Petty dead
Another music great is dead.
Here is his last performance

Monday, 2 October 2017

The USA invites gun massacres

Everyone agrees that the latest horrendous gun massacre is something that should never occur.

The only problem with this is the result of the USA's very lax gun culture. There is NO reason why semi-autonomic rifles and its ilk are sold anywhere. They are not hunting rifles. They were made for one thing. Killing human beings.

By allowing their sale and making no attempt to have any sort of gun controls the citizens of the USA have made a determined choice to have routine gun massacres on a regular basis.

It is very much a sign of a nation in deep decline and social degradation.

Frederic Lemieux on six-things-to-know-about-mass-shootings-in-america
German Lopez on gun-violence-united-states-america

Sunday, 1 October 2017

A good time was had by all in Blayney

My wife's mother celebrated her 80th birthday prematurely on the weekend.

It was premature because her birthday is in fact on November 15. However a number of the family and friends would not be around the, This included my wife who will be visiting South America with a friend at that time.

It was a very moving occasion. The family is very close. Even the grandchildren of which there are seven from three families including mine are close. They all act like brothers and sisters!

The obvious love and affection that was here in spades  made it a truly remarkable event.
I could not help thinking if only those on the NO side of the same sex marriage could highlight this stuff then it would show up the yes side for the charade it is!
Even though age is creeping up on her She and her former husband have been good for Blayney. Her husband was the local GP and I can remember many a time he would get up at say 2 a.m. to go to Blayney hospital for an emergency! She has done a lot of community work.
She now just concentrates on the Baptist church there now. It bought a pub which discontinued. The refurbishment is a wonder. It can easily sit over 100 people and now they can sit and enjoy talking to one another in chairs after the service is over. They even inherited a coffee machine!

It proved the perfect place to celebrate My wife's mother birthday!!

Blayney is a very  pleasant place. I had to wear a jumper on the weekend but that is usual at this time of year. There was only two shop fronts up for lease showing the town is pretty healthy at present. Lots of places to get a coffee. I chose the Bakery and also got a fantastic blueberry muffin!

It also has one of the best places to buy fish and chips. The boys and I always try to but it coming here!

One unique feature here is the local oval still has the capacity to produce turf wickets for cricket even though the town does not have a term in the Bathurst turf competition! If this only occurred in Sydney

Thursday, 28 September 2017

Around the Traps 29/9/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk