Thursday 29 September 2016

Around the Traps 30/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Internet not great in Port Macquarie. will update inn Sydaneee on the weekend.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nuttin
Diane Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday 28 September 2016

Steve from Brisbane beats me to it.

Steve from Brisbane has written an admirable article bagging Stagflation Davidson for making a call on the South Australian blackout on NO information.

Typical of the lazy sod!

Davidson like all at Catallaxy never marks his belief to the market.

I should have added commenters at Callaxy must vie with those at Watts up with that as the most clueless of all as you can read

Commenting on the Presidential debate they simply lapped up online polls. Random samples anyone??

Update:

Here is a good summary

Tuesday 27 September 2016

The Presidential Debate

The debate went pretty much as I anticipated indeed predicted. Hillary won in a canter.
She won this easily because she was well prepared and knew the detail and Trump was not and resorted to bluster as well as trump interuptus.

What did surprise me was how Presidential Hillary looked. I really did not think she had it in her.

Trump could not talk about Hillary's greatest weakness either. Her ability to work with a hostile congress.

At this stage we do know only complete nutcases would support Trump.

One thing Clinton got badly wrong was the possibility of recession under Trump. with the Deficit blowing out to reaganesque levels the US economy would be roaring.  CBA research backs me on this. they also see the  US roaring and inflation rising sharply.

update:

I was right

Further Update:
538 confirms Clinton's  thrashing of Trump

Monday 26 September 2016

Menzies

My youngest son has been watching the series on Menzies.

I was wondering whether they would talk about inflation hitting 35% under Menzies when we had the Korean war boom. No. what about Menzies probably losing both the 54 and 61 elections under fair electoral boundaires. any mention that it was Black Jack McEwen that was responsible for the Japan trade deal so if anything went pear-shaped he got the blame.

No mention of the protectionism of industry that made it a house of cards and when we were hit with an overseas shock it all came crumbling down. any mention of the Vernon committee that produced the finest report post WW2 ( and which Whitlam based his 69 and 72 campaigns. He actually had a lot of supply side reforms!)

What we got was yet another one sided or worse and ignorant view of the Menzies era,

He had a lot of luck but used it brilliantly. Just compare Shorten and his tactics now to Calwell after the 61 election.

Indeed read Daly's  memoirs on the era.entertaining reading. Evatt a genius and then a mad man. Calwell never having the strategic nous..

Tuesday 20 September 2016

Must reading for public policy wonks

If you love reading then Dianne Coyle's blog is a must read.

She has an absolute must read for reading if you are into public policy.

Enjoy

Monday 19 September 2016

Around the Traps 23/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy, Oy,Oy
Northern America


Europe


Asia


Wonk


General


Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nutting not happy Dave!
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)


Vox wonk

Getting Old

I am feeling my age.

Last Thursday I went into hospital for my now once every two years colonoscopy Apart from the lack of food it isn't that bad.

However I got vertigo form a viral condition and combine this with nausea and I am feeling very weird at present. .When I walked to the doctor it was id I have been an all nighter.

At present I cannot do a thing.

Getting old sucks!

Thursday 15 September 2016

Around the Traps 16/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Tuesday 13 September 2016

Baird runs into trouble

The most recent poll in NSW had the ALP and the government even steven. This would mean the government winning again but it still means quite a shift away from Baird since the last election.

As Julius Sumner Miller used to say Why is this so?

Well Baird has dome a lot of things and so it is not surprising some of these things has hit nerves.
Let us look at a few.


  • The Lock out laws.  ( if you are not up to speed then read the Callinan report released yesterday.) . This has proved quite popular. Amazing people do not like drunks hanging around after 2 a.m. in the morning despite cries it is bad for business.
  • Banning Greyhound racing . This has also proved popular. Most greyhounds are killed when it is  clear they cannot win races and they are trained by live baiting. Despite a huge campaign by shock jocks most people have no great love for greyhound racing!
  • Council mergers. It has always bemused me how state governments can change councils on any grounds and insist on mergers.This issue has hit hard. People are closer to local council of all Governments. The reasons put up by Baird appear spurious for mergers and I am very wary on the cricketing front re turf wickets,
  • The Selling of Poles and Wires. The rejection by Scott Morrison of the selling of Ausgrid proved very embarrassing. This needs to be sold for necessary infrastructure spending. No-one still has any idea of what is happening here.
  • Westconnex Homes have had to be resumed so westconnex could go ahead.Only inner city greenies object to this because they do not want wextconnex. .
In all of this we should also realise Luke Foley has come of age as an Opposition Leader and hit quite a few blows. He also has gained some talent ( only some) from the last election.

Given Baird is now persona no grata at 2GB will he learn the lessons of Carr with regard to these boofheads or not!!

Politics has suddenly become interesting in the state of NSW

Saturday 10 September 2016

Coldplay

My oldest son and myself can agree on enjoying Coldplay.

He has this on his phone and I love it.

Army of One.


I'm told this was written for Downton's Abbey's last episode.  Ironic. My family liked the series but I didn't and I;m the one that loves the history of the period!

Thursday 8 September 2016

Around the Traps 9/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

I am quite ill so I will update when I get out of bed!
I have arisen from my death bed!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Gave Giles (econometrics)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday 7 September 2016

25 years of growth

Yesterday was the 25th year of not having a recession. This is a remarkable achievement. It would not be happening if not for the highly successful stimulus the ALP Government had to counter the GFC.

We will probably best the Netherland's record next year.

We now have a substantial part of the population who have never experienced a recession.

In one of lifes great ironies it was only because of the public sector that GDP rose. State governments are spending on infrastructure quite a bit. We need it.

Tuesday 6 September 2016

Wycliffe, the Night Manager

I was to to a friend who is way older than I and still working . We discovered we loved British police dramas.
He lent me his Wycliffe DVD set .
What a great series. the first episode was bad but after that I simply wanted to watch the whole set until it was finished. I think Jimmy Yuill steals the show as DI Kersey.
A couple of minor criticisms. Kersey is not in the last few episodes and that is a shame. Wycliffe's superior are always political operators.

Ronnie Barkers son was one of the detectives until he became a criminal!!

This series is highly recommended.


My oldest son got me to watch the Night Manager. He wanted to watch it because of Tom Hiddleston who is good but Hugh Laurie absolutely steals the show. He is the 'baddie' and Tom the 'goodie'

A word of warning however. this show is slow. very slow. It took me a long time to view it all because of this. I rarely was in the mood to watch it.
you nwil know reasnably soon whether you can go through all the episodes.

Monday 5 September 2016

Chinese Investment, donations and Sam

There is a lot of confusion with regard to investment in Australia.
The government have made a number of decisions denying Chinese companies owing assets in Australia. they cited national interest but never told us why it was against the national interest.
They didn't tell us why it took therm so long to do this. Why such a decision when it is five minutes to midnight.

I suggest Australia compile a ;list like the USA and Europe of industries that foreign companies cannot invest in.

With regard to foreign donations I find it highly ironic that all the people railing against the money given to Sam Dastyeri voted against John Faulkner's reforms which would have made such payments illegal.
I am also wondering why it is okay for Julie bishop to get a truckful of money yet poor old Sam got just over $1600.

Lastly the calls for the resignation is predictable yet this donation was declared and not illegal.
I think Sam should resign but for being greedy and very very stupid.It is yet further evidence the NSW right has little idea of political strategy as we saw when they overthrew Kevin Rudd.

Off to bed now as I am feeling poorly.

update:

I should have added it gets very dangerous for senior government ministers making claims about alleged subterfuge between Chines entities and Sam.The only country who would lose if the Chines gets stroppy is Australia. Another example of a very poor political class

further update:

I saw Sam's press conference and it was a train wreck. Leigh Sales was absolutely merciless.Funny enough and i could be wrong but i think most of the air for this topic has gone but Sam has lost all credibility. That is no bad thing!

Thursday 1 September 2016

Around the Traps 2/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk