Sunday, 29 November 2015

The Day/Night Test at Adelaide

We experienced something different in test cricket at Adelaide. It proved immensely successful.
HOWEVER the reason it did was because the contest between bat and ball was even and thus we saw low scores because the batsmen are in fact of low quality.

The only problem was the trest was decided on a bad umpiring decision. If you are going to use DRS then use it.

The man was clearly out and the match turned on the decision. Was the third umpire the only person at the ground or watching on TV who thought Lyons was not out?

This was a great shame and I hope the Umpires learn from this bad mistake.

Nanness has been a revelation on ABC radio as a commentator.

Thursday, 26 November 2015

Around the Traps 27/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Poll Update

The  inimitable Kevin Bonham gives us his latest missive on current polling.

My thoughts are id people had a choice between Abbott or Shorten they would pick Shorten.

Now it is Turnbull and adults are back in charge of the Government they are well contented and are treating the Government like a typical FIRST TERM Government. In other words they should win comfortably.
The only caveat to this is if Turnbull does a Rudd and does not use any of his popularity to announce policy reform.

The announcement of the Harper Report is not good.

Tuesday, 24 November 2015

Viewing the Tax System

The ALP have got themselves into a terrible state.

They won't increase the GST. No siree. It is an unfair tax. It falls mainly on the poor.

A shame they couldn't gain evidence the offsets put in place when it first came in failed.
Of course the ALP's own ETS cam in with offsets for the poor which again succeeded.

Why not sign up to a GET with full compensation?

It is for political reasons. They thin it is a good target politically.

What really irritates me is everyone who says they cannot support the GST because it is not a progressive tax.

The GST is the best indirect tax you can have. End of story.

You do not look at EVERY tax and than accept or discard it because it is progressive or not.

The key to examining progressivity ( which is a good thing because they that have the capacity should pay most of the tax) is the overall tax system.

Overall our system is progressive.

Monday, 23 November 2015

Boots on the ground

There have been a lot of noise lately about putting boots on the ground to defeat ISIS/ISIL.

Talk to a military man and they think boots on the ground is the type of forces which we saw in the illegal invasion of Iraq. I doubt if any nation is going to agree to that.

However before even thinking about putting any boots anywhere you must have some sort of political solution in mind.

This is why the invasion of Iraq was so disastrous. It begat ISIS.

Unless you know exactly how this will occur after ISIS/ISIL militarily defeated then it would be in vain just like the invasion of Iraq proved to be.

Thus far the only people who are beating the 'boots on the ground' drum do not have a clue what may occur after it is over.  It is the same people who gleefully supported the invasion of Iraq.

George Santayana was right.

Update:
 Sam Roggeveen

Thursday, 19 November 2015

Around the Traps 20/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Umpiring on both Saturday and Sunday but will update.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 18 November 2015

Wage Pressures???

The Wage Price Index was released yesterday.
Let me hand it over to the excellent CBA economics team.

"Annual wages growth, as measured by the WPI, is travelling at its slowest pace since the series began in 1998.  It’s no surprise that wages growth has slowed given the increase in spare capacity in the labour market (best captured by the increase in the unemployment rate).  But the decline has been sharper than previous episodes largely because we now have a more flexible labour market in Australia that is more responsive to changes in labour demand.  The large decline in the terms of trade from lower commodity prices has also weighed on wages growth.  If wages had not been so responsive to cooling demand for labour it’s more likely than not that the unemployment rate would have risen more sharply than what we’ve observed.  On that basis there are two positives from the sharp slowdown in wages growth – more people employed and an improvement in international competitiveness. 
Soft wages growth has played its role in generating benign CPI inflation.  In our view, weak wages growth looks set to persist over the next year given the degree of spare capacity in the labour market.  This will be further exacerbated by any additional commodity price weakness.  The RBA holds this view also and it underpins their soft easing bias.  As the central bank duly noted in the November Minutes, “the inflation outlook may afford some scope for further easing of monetary policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.”  We don’t expect further rate cuts given there is a growing body of evidence that indicates the necessary rebalancing in the economy is occurring under the umbrella of low interest rates and a lower AUD.  However, it’s clear that tepid price pressures will continue to keep the door ajar for further policy easing and as such the RBA is likely to keep its soft easing bias intact at the December Board meeting."
So there we have it. A flexible labour market is doing its job.
Hang on what about those clowns who said the ALP re-regulated the labour market. The Hendersons. Sloans, Kates and whatever.
Absolute silence. No sign of any of them saying sheepishly we wuz wrong.
Absolute Hypocrites

Here's Greg Jericho

 courtesy of Alan Kohler

Tuesday, 17 November 2015

Test Cricket

Cricket Australia  is doing a bad job is marketing test cricket which of course is the only form of cricket.

The first test was a shambles because the Kiwis were not given a decent preparation.Few peole would have enjoyed the test.

The second test was also a shambles because the pitch was a shocker. No test batsman should get a double century on a test wicket. to have two in a match means there is no contest between bat and ball.

A great test match will have scores of around 250 in all four innings with one century in the match which is a match winning score.

Fast bowlers should dominate the first day and spinners the last.

Monday, 16 November 2015

Penalty Rates again


Ray Markey has a small articles on the myths of penalty rates. Worth a read !

Sunday, 15 November 2015

Paris

The attacks in Paris occurred because some people have so much hate one cannot really understand it. They also have an ideology that devalues human beings so much that killing someone  has no effect on their conscience.

A war on ideology takes a lot of time. Decades if not longer. You cannot win it with weapons although you do need them.

My wife immigrated from a country that is predominantly islamic. She tells me some of the most fanatical are nominal muslims. They kill ,rape etc people for any amount of reasons. however these attacks occur only in these countries.

I cannot say I am any expert but it seems to me if you give anyone a fair go at making money and some ability to secure a financial future for their children then they ain't going to go around killing people.

Thursday, 12 November 2015

Around the Traps 13/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northerm America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Just a small note on becoming a republic

Peter Fitzsimmons has revitalized the Republican debate and with Charles coming here we know learn via essential that most Aussies do not want him to become King of Australia,

Basically the idea of a monarchy is stupid really really stupid.

You only allow a person's genes to determine who the head of state is not their ability.

Capitalism is based on meritocracy. If you do not allow this to be the basis of every job opportunity then you wither and die.

Tuesday, 10 November 2015

some thoughts on the dismissal

November 11 is a very interesting day in Australia. We have Armistice or Remembrance day.  I prefer Armistice day.

We have Ned Kelly's hanging.

But we also had the dismissal of the the ALP government in 1975.

My memory of the dismissal of Gough Whitlam was studying at home whilst listening to Steve Liebman on 2UE. He was talking to Katherine West when his Canberra correspondent rang in ( he was Kevin someone who was the Canberra correspondent for the Daily Telegraph). He informed the program that Gough had been sacked. Liebman's reaction was "shit"

I remember thinking at the time the Liberals were way too impatient. They merely had to wait for the election for everyone to vote against the present government.  The ALP government had finally gotten some decent ministers. Hayden, McCellend, Wriedt were all quite good minsters and the government was finally looking competent.

The dismissal changed my vote from voting for the liberals to voting for the ALP purely because of their actions of essentially raping the constitution.
There are new books ( by Paul Kelly and Jenny Hocking) on the crisis bolstered by the opening up of papers hitherto unread.
These papers do not help Kerr's Fraser's. Mason's, Barwick's or even Whitlam's reputations at ball.

It will never occur again. Fraser never had the legitimacy to follow through on any policy.

It made the election of the ALP in 1983 that much easier.

Monday, 9 November 2015

The Ice age scare

Nick Stokes does everyone a favour by showing up what scientists were saying in the 70s even 60s about the planet cooling.

Sunday, 8 November 2015

Has technology improved our life like we thought it would ?

I remember way back in high school and even at Uni the major thought about technology was how would we spend all this extra leisure time?

Unfortunately it hasn't turned out like that.
I said last week one of the problems of junior cricket is the lack of parents, This is directly due to the parents working at home on Saturday morning.
I have a mate who refuses a smart phone at any job he has. He believes  ,rightly in my view, that it means means extra work for no pay.

I have two anecdotes.
One from a long time ago when I arrived to work one Monday morning and was asked by my boss at the Monday meeting why my mobile was turned off on the weekend. I told him because I didn't work on the week-end!

I remember another occasion I left work on a Friday saying I had so much left to do on a certain project.  i was asked again when I arrived at work early Monday morning what I had to do and I said the same as I told him on Friday. He then asked me why I hadn't finished it on the weekend. I then told him of not only my wedding anniversary but also of two grand finals that occurred over the weekend and then asked him which of those things he wanted me to cancel.

Technology is a blessing. I realise this just from a cricket administration point of view but it also has let employers make people work  unpaid overtime at home and this is a bad thing. It is also unsustainable.I know this from all the feedback I am getting from volunteer organisations.

Thursday, 5 November 2015

Around the Traps 6/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
I read all articles however I do not support all views. I simply give air to interesting points of view.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia


Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk



Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Cricket and stuff

The First Test against the Kiwis ( I think it could a be beauty) starts today and it got me thinking.

This is the first cricket season for fourteen seasons I won't be coaching cricket. For the first time I can sleep in on Saturdays. I get to the game I am umpiring before the toss and can inspect the ground!

I do miss the coaching and seeing the enthusiasm of the boys. We finished on a high though. Unbeaten through out the season and winning a close final.

I won't miss little support from parents though. There is a lot of work to do in coaching a team.One embarrassing thing that occurred in recent times was that I had no -one to score when we were fielding.
I do think that technology has decreased our leisure time not increased it.

I do wonder about the future of cricket when parents do not have the time to watch their boys for a morning  at all during the season even in a final where their team are the favorites.

Update:

Channel Nine have really boring people as commentators bar Chapelli.
the ABC do seem to be trying to ape channel nine. Gerard Whately is a wonderful commentator on many sports and can commentate on other sports but not cricket.

Monday, 2 November 2015

Star Trek. The best post for Trekkies

If you are a trekkie like me me then THIS is essential reading.

I don't agree with all of it but who cares!

Tax Reform

We had a PBO estimate yesterday into a MP reference to them about how much revenue a GST would gain if it was essentially the same as in New Zealand.

We have a few problems when discussing this.

If you raise and broaden the GST ( which I  have no problem with ) the following things need to be done:

  • the poor have to be compensated
  • The States have to get rid of taxes that inhibit economic activity. as the HENRY Review recommended.
  • The States need more revenue to compensate for the funds the Federal government are no longer going to give them
  • It needs to gain more revenue to the States over and above the last point so the Federal government can cut income taxes ( from monies they no longer have to give to the States)
Thus you have to raise one hellva lot of revenue to do all these things.

I do not have any problems with any of the above items but I do think it would be politically courageous.

I do agree with Noah Smith