Tuesday, 30 July 2013

Welcome to Skeptikoi

We have someone new to the blogosphere.

He is skeptikoi. he comes from a equities background and should prove interesting to read.

Put him down on your list.

Monday, 29 July 2013

Castle Who is Richard Castle?

Before I start.

For any Castle fans writing on the castlewalls is a must read. She writes beautifully and even when I disagree with her I still love reading her.
Go here to read what people are feeling about the series and what may eventuate.
Then go here  to join The Squab and The Quail HATERS ANONYMOUS membership roster
President Danny G Superstar!!  This is about the episode which will never ever be NAMED!

Early beginnings
We know his name is Richard Alexander Rogers. He never knows his father until very late. His father is in the CIA. His mother is an actress , Martha Rogers.
When little she had a lot of nannies look after him but we learn their care wasn't too flash. He then goes to a lot of boarding schools when gaining an education.

All of this makes him insecure. It is likely he was bullied at school and he counters by using his humour and sharp wit to gain popularity.  It is at one of these schools some-one tells him has has real talent as a writer. this is something he take to heart and ever after always fervently believes. ( somewhat ironically he solves the very crime this mentor of his is involved in however it means his mentor was actively involved in murdering his own father.)

He goes to University and does well.It is here he changes his name to Castle as it sounds a better name for a writer. He writes a best-seller whilst still there BUT he had to persevere and hawk it around to a lot of publishers before it actually hit the shelves. from that moment forward he earns a comfortable living as a writer.

We know he does a lot of research and has a great eye for detail.

He is with Kyra for over three years whilst at university. we know he loved her deeply and wanted to marry her BUT she did not believe in marriage and she went overseas. communication problems meant neither got in touch with the other and they never meant until Castle investigated the murder at Kyra's wedding.
We can speculate here that  Castle never wanted to marry Meredith. We know from his talk with Kyra he didn't love Meredith but we also know he enjoyed having sex with her. Given we know Meredith is a compulsive liar and loves the good life it is not out of the realms of possibility that Meredith deliberately got pregnant to get part of the castle gravy train.
After all she is not physically attractive and her personality leaves a lot to be desired. Also it is way too early for Castle to want marriage after Kyra.
She cannot help herself and she is caught in bed with her director. She doesn't want Alexis and so Castle gains custody.
This marriage is very strange. Why would he get married so son after being divorced? Yes she is quite attractive BUT she is a successful publishing executive working long hours. We learn that little sex happened, probably because of the long working hours. we know Gina is a safe bet but boring.

One of the best things that happens to him was the birth of his daughter Alexis. Absurdly she has no  family characteristics at all. She is a  diligent and very bright student, quite responsible and quite protective of her father. She is very close to him and this is because he brought her up being a house dad.

It is AFTER his divorce with Gina Castle develops a reputation for being a playboy.  This is most probably the brainstorm of Paula his agent and Gina who is also his publisher. He wouldn't have the time to be out with any women whilst he is looking after Alexis at home but it is a different matter when she is school age.
The reputation is a sham. No ladies man has a relationship for over 3 years with one woman ( Kyra) and then gets married for a similar time with Meredith and again gets married for a much shorter time with Gina.
Castle uses this public image to avoid emotional attachment to any woman. He is simply after sex if the woman desires it as well.
Castle is an extrovert and a person who is well liked. For example he regularly plays cards with Roy Montgomery, the Mayor and the Judge who allows Beckett's affidavits. He always beat them but they always come back to play.
He is self deprecating. He is a much better shot than Beckett  yet when he shoots the gun out of the hand of some-one about to shoot Beckett he said he was aiming for his head!
He is very good under pressure. Whether it is telling Beckett to get behind him when the tiger is about to pounce or when he deliberately gets her talking about she was always into him to help her  get distracted from the bomb she is standing on.
It takes time for Castle to get interested in Beckett. clearly he is interested in her as a character for his books. She is so interesting he can write and write. In the early stages he plays up his public persona which Beckett clearly believes.
He does this to gain information about her both directly and more importantly indirectly. however it is not long when he ditches this and realises what an extraordinary woman she is.
He must know Beckett likes him. When he starts following her she instantly changes her hairstyle, puts on make-up, lipstick and eye shadow and wears more stylish clothes.
The Caskett relationship probably starts when he apologizes for examining her mother's case.
She sees him in a different light. 
He is clearly worried about directly asking her out so he asks her to the Hampton's but only platonically!
from the moment he comes back and is accepted again we can say they are in love with each other but neither will admit it.
Castle clearly gets the Demming /Beckett relationship wrong. He thinks it will not last but then when it does he starts a cold war with Demming. Demming moves too fast and Becket eventually chooses Castle but too late.
Castle is much more circumspect with Josh. He always asks questions about him and realises that the relationships going nowhere. 
This provokes two things in Castle, He never admits to being in love with Beckett as she is with Josh.
He uses the term ALWAYS. This is an emotional intimate word and it allows him to say i love you to Beckett without him actually having to say the words . She realises this and in turn uses the word as well for the same reason. The Caskett relationship becomes much stronger emotionally as a result.
How much does he love her. He was willing to take a bullet for her at the funeral, He waited four years for her and he was not willing to live without her if she was killed by the bomb she was standing on.
One aspect of the relationship strangely rarely mentioned is how both of them get off when they solve murders together.
It is almost like they are having sex.you can see the ecstasy in their eyes  when they say to each other they know who the murderer is.Almost but not quite DH Lawrence allusions

the proposal is strange but understandable. He believes by proposing he can show Beckett he is serous about their relationship and he can help Beckett overcome her irrational fears. He is grimaced at the swings because he has to get it right. He cannot live with a NO.
He also sees the woman Beckett can be once these fears are gone hence his patience.


I failed to mention Castle is not a vindictive person at all. He is afterall possibly the only divorced husband to continue to still have sex with his ex-wife even tough he caught in his own bed with her director!

Whoopsy again compulsory Castle/Coldplay video

Sunday, 28 July 2013

Jefferson Starship

Jefferson Starship did not age well.

Here are two of their best.

First Fast Buck Freddie

and from the same album Papa John Creach on Get Fiddler

Thursday, 25 July 2013

Around the Traps 27/7/13

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Debate on who should be the next Chair of the Fed in bold in northern America section

Northern America
Brian Banisch (Climate)

Andrew Gelman (Statistics)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)

Dianne Coyle and Frances Woolley (Quirky)

Wednesday, 24 July 2013

The Blogosphere at its best

Most days I really enjoy reading around the traps and the various articles written.

Today was no exception. I could do this I think any week but to select but two articles which would be beneficial to read and understand then:

Read  Ricardian Ambivalence. I make no apology for being a huge fan of this man.

He works in the financial markets yet goes out of his way to write about the financial markets to help people understand them better. In this article he tells us why we should be examining the trimmed mean estimate of the CPI rather than the weighted median.
( I should have mentioned it was our own RBA that started this emphasis. now the Cleveland Fed provides similar figures for the USA when its monthly CPI is released. Why oh why can't WE have a Monthly CPI????)

Kevin O'Rourke writes at what I call Voxwonk on why-economics-needs-economic-history. this is an update about what he wrote about at the blog The Irish economy. It is essential reading as well.

Indeed Noah Smith writes about when-have-econ-blogs-changed-your-mind. In both these cases if you were thinking something different change your mind now!!.

Thank you Ricardo and Kevin from the bottom of my heart.

(Of course MY big discovery was why Kate Beckett was running away from Castle!!)

Monday, 22 July 2013

Castle -Who is Kate Beckett another update.

Only TWO months before episode 1 Series6!!!!

The lovely lady at writing on the castle walls has written her opinion on my theory of Our Kate having an affair with a married man.

She replies here and here.   She is very kind in her answers however I am thinking perhaps I need to put more meat on my  Castlesque theory on Beckett!

  • Beckett is quite put out by the married man having an affair in episode 2  where (Castle immediately writes of Nikki Heat having had a broken heart.) and then in the next episode where the dead local politician is found in a compromising position with a woman later found to be a prostitute.
  • It has to happen very close to her mother's murder as Our Kate thinks her emotional reactions are all about her mother's murder. Thus it happens when she is at University.
  • He is a Vaughn like sleazebag whose ways mesmerise her and she falls deeply in love with him.
  • It is also likely to be short but  highly passionate.
  • Our Kate is no home wrecker so she most definitely did NOT know he was married.
  • When she finds out she confronts him and he claims he is going to separate from his wife but of course doesn't.
  • This leads to her feeling both a conquest and he got tired of her and moved on.  

Now let us examine some theories about who it could have been or even if it wasn't who she was in love with.

Will Sorensen
He is immediately out of the picture. Castle has met him and Castle tells Beckett she does not go out with men she is in love with at the end of Series 3. This includes Sorensen.
Sorensen happens after her bad 'affair' and was only for 6 months.
Beckett would have known he would be transferred to another city. So it is an easy option for her. She goes out with some-one who she likes but does not love and when he is transferred the affair is over. She doesn't even have to tell him it is over. The relationship is classic Beckett.
Beckett and Sorensen are never really close in the last two episodes of the first series. Her reactions to Sorensen  are similar to her reactions to Demmng later.

Mike Royce
Lots of problems here. Yes she does say to him on the phone in Series 3 episode 3 she was in love with him BUT  she is giving him new information. Castle had already had lunch with him and would have picked up any 'love vibes' between Beckett and Royce. There were none around. moreover Beckett would have NEVER EVER let Castle help her get Royce's murderer if he had been a lover. She would have known Castle would have picked something up. Beckett never reacts to Royce's murder as a former lover being murdered only as a close friend.
Castle of course knows Royce so would be on the list as well IF he had been a lover.

As I said a few days ago it is the brief but passionate affair that leads to Our Kate having the doubts in her affair with Castle which come out in the final three episodes of series 5. Without this theory the last three episodes simply do not make sense.
  • This affair leads us to realise Our Kate is easy meat for transparent liars as we find out later with Meredith or Vaughn. 
  • She is very wary of a man dumping her in a close relationship when they tire of her.
  • We know she is a glass half empty gal and so it doesn't matter how many times Castle proves his lover for her just one little thing like playing an internet game rather than having sex ( this is unbelievable but it is in the episode) provokes these fears
  • It totally explains why she is such a fervent 'one and done' gal
  • She is an emotionally immature woman. She never reflects at all on her relationships. She lets Josh get away with murder in episode 4 of series 3 when she should have learnt from her affair with Demming.
However at the end of all this we must remind ourselves Castle still thinks Beckett is worth it  and he is her answer and he is RIGHT!

Whoopsy obligatory Castle-Coldplay tune

Sunday, 21 July 2013

Austerity is crap AGAIN

We all know that if Austerity is imposed on an economy it will make the economy worse don't we?

Well today Simon Wren-Lewis examines the costs of imposing austerity on an economy.

In the article he draws on Alan Taylor's seminal piece which I had in Around the Traps last Friday.
Kevin O'Rourke talks about when austerity is needed.

Read and then weep at why politicians follow zombie ideas at the cost of people becoming unemployed.

When oh when will people learn that the best and only time to impose austerity policies is when the economy is doing well. Keynes only pointed this out in 1936!!

Leave supporting austerity to fact free people such as those at Catallaxy!

Saturday, 20 July 2013

Van the Man

How there ever been a greater singer/songwriter than Van the Man?

I don't think so.

Here he is with two of his best

first Domino

and then Into the Mystic

Friday, 19 July 2013

Castle. Who is Kate Beckett ? update

Before I start.

For any Castle fans writing on the castlewalls is a must read. She writes beautifully and even when I disagree with her I still love reading her.
Go here to read what people are feeling about the series and what may eventuate.
Then go here  to join The Squab and The Quail HATERS ANONYMOUS membership roster
President Danny G Superstar!!  This is about the episode which will never ever be NAMED!

Okay the main reason for this update is that the wall is cobblers.

Go to the very first three episodes of Castle.
We see our Kate very angry about married men who have affairs with women with no disregard for the consequences.

Castle immediately writes that Nikki Heat was badly hurt ( emotionally) in her life.
This was to do with their second case where a married man was promising to leave his wife and join his lover in a relationship. He didn't.

This implies Our Kate has had an affair with a married man. We do  know she is prim and proper so she would not known at first  he was married but she found out.
When confronted he swore to her he was leaving his wife and family. She didn't like this at all but in the end it was of course , as usual, all lies. She was flung aside and made to feel as just another 'conquest'.

We do know she is a sucker for the lies made by people who want to mess with her head.

Three of the most transparent liars, Meredith, Vaughn and Stack, all mess with her head when any normal person would have easily seen the lies for what they were.

The last three episodes now make sense.

Why would any normal woman think Castle is not enormously in love with her

  • He tried to take a bullet for her at the funeral.
  • He waited four years for her.
  • He came back and was with her when she is standing on a bomb and is very likely to be killed. He is saying he cannot and will not  live on this world without her.

BUT to a woman who woman who was  scorned ( remember the Nikki Heat book launch) this is all meaningless.

She sees him preferring to play an game instead of having sex with her. She begins to think Castle is getting sick of her.
It brings back memories of her being rejected before.
Then Vaughn ,a blatant liar, gets into her head about the Caskett relationship. This simply exacerbated doubts started by that other blatant liar Meredith.

Stack gets into head head about her ability and her job despite having lied blatantly about several parts of that investigation.

This leads her to the job offer that clearly she has never thought through properly. After All if this super agency is so red hot why couldn't they solve the murder it took her team a day to solve.

Hence it was this affair that leads to all the doubts now.

Her relationships before Castle are all relationships that were never going to work.
Sorensen was with the FBI and would transferred hither and thither. She was never going to follow him.
Deming was more of a whim and an attempt to make Castle jealous.
Josh was a prat who was all over the place. Again a 'normal' relationship was never on the cards.

The Watershed to me is Our Kate finally coming to terms with all this. She now understands what family means, what her home is  and this leads to her understanding how important Castle is.

This is why she chooses the swings to meet.
It has ameliorated his anger previously and she is hoping it will again. She has to say sorry for her actions.
She approaches the swings very positive but thinks Castle will break up with her given his facial expression and his attitude.

Then he proposes. She is not expecting that at all!!


Some people have asked me if the Valentine's gift and the birthday present negates all this.

In fact it adds to the argument.

Beckett does both things and they are a huge thing for her to do and show how deep her love is for Castle BUT the doubts are always around. It doesn't matter how generous Castle is in his appreciation. It is just like the examples that have already been shown of his love for her.
Once Beckett gets doubts they grow because of this previous relationship with the married man!!!
We must remember Our Kate is an emotional 'bimbo'. This is hard to contemplate because she is clearly an intelligent woman but this contradiction is part of her character.

Further Postscript

This relationship with with the married man explains why Beckett is such a fervent 'one and done'girl.

The 'emotional bimbo' angle explains why she took over a year to realise there might be a contradiction between the public and private personas of Castle.
It also explains why she is so insistent Castle doesn't know her and she is right!!

It also explains why she is a glass half empty gal.

Whoopsy mandatory clip of Castle and Coldplay

Thursday, 18 July 2013

Around the Traps 19/7/13

Time for Around the Traps again.
The original place for the best blogging articles of the week and the BEST!!

Simon Wren-Lewis and Noah Smith were on fire this week.

updates on the week-end.

All done now!

Northern America


  • nuttin



Brian Banisch ( climate)
Andrew Gelman (Statistics)

Dave Giles (Econometrics)


Tuesday, 16 July 2013

Krugman Vs Noah Smith on Japan & a Liquidity Trap

Exciting times.

Noah Smith wrote about Japan here.

This brought out Paul Krugman to explain the consequences of a wage-price-flexibility-in-a-liquidity-trap-again-again-again

Noah Smith of course then replied. Check out the comments in particular.

I feel this debate will continue a while yet and if so I will update but this shows the blogosphere at its best.
(Simon Wren-Lewis has been the prime person behind recent debates)

Here is an important topic and there is a good and robust discussion about the subject.

I like both these writers however on this topic I think Kruggers has the advantage.

Saturday, 13 July 2013

Castle & Coldplay

Castle comes back on TV tonight in Sydney so I am celebrating.

What do you get when you combine the greatest series ever written with the greatest song ever written?

Emotional Ecstasy!!

Danny G Superstar and Our Tony A class I hope you like it!

Thursday, 11 July 2013

Around the Traps 12/7/13

It is time for Around the Traps this week.

updated for Saturday and Ricardian Ambivalence is back
now updated for Sunday. Wow Mark Thoma and I read very similar articles!!


Northern America





Brian Banisch (Climate)
Andrew Gelman ( Statistics)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)