Thursday, 19 April 2018

Around the Traps 20/4/18

It is time yet again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky +book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 18 April 2018

Do small parties understand their role?

Small parties do not hand around a lot..

I am thinking this could well be because they do not understand their own raison d'etre. Personality conflicts loom large as well.

Most small parties are their for purely to protect sectional interests like the National party or more usually as a protest against the major parties. Don Chipp put it best when he said a person votes for the Australian Democrats to keep the bastards honest!

If we examine any declines in small parties it is when they completely change their raison d'etre and try to be a mainstream party.

The Australian Democrats imploded when some people got too  big for their breeches and they are no longer around.

A small look at One Nation, Clive Palmer's once party, Nick Xenophon's party shows they lose big time when they change from being a protest party and think they will become a major party. When that party is named after one person it seems personality conflicts appear compulsory!!

Nick Xenophon after his SA election debacle has learned one lesson and that is get rid of a person's name. Neither Pauline Hanson nor Jacquie Lambie have learned this lesson. Neither could be accused of being intelligent with at least Lambie does not have a Svengali hanging around in the background.
It seems both women have made the choice that name recognition outweighs problems of personality.

We shall see

Tuesday, 17 April 2018

When to do Labour market reforms

There is a great article in what I call vox wonk on labour market reform.

Andrea Bassanni and Federico Cingani on the-short-term-employment-consequences-of-structural-reforms 

If I can make a short summary of the paper the any negative employment consequences are negligible when the economy is an an upswing.
Discernible readers will realise straight away this confirms previous OECD and IMF research on these subjects on which I talked about previously. ( some 6 years ago in fact).

Monday, 16 April 2018

The GFC reconsidered

Many thanks to Carola Binder ( the hottest economist around but she is married fellas) for a link to a very interesting paper which examines mortgage backed securities ratings and losses in the USA.

Sunday, 15 April 2018

Evangelicals are the big losers from supporting Trump

We are used to the same apologists using the same excuses in discussing Trump however it is the evangelicals in the USA who have been badly burned by their using any excuses to support Trump.

However it seems the biblically literate evangelicals are hitting back. Timothy Keller here for example. There are other. My favourite Don Carson comes to mind.This is quite topical. Michael Gerson weighs in  Jim Wallis puts it very clearly.

It seems from afar that the biblically literate ones live in the north and the others in the south.That is only speculation however.

Let me give an demonstration. I was astonished to hear people who claim to be evangelical trying to show Trump was just like King David!
Let us go to that story.
 King David was in his palace . Although the greatest military commander of his age he delegated that to others in the current war.. It is at this time he spots a lady whom he then lusts after. He does indeed have sex with the woman. When he is told she is pregnant he tells the husband whom is a soldier to relax and be with his wife. He does not. Unlike David he knows his duty.
He then sends him to a part of the fighting where he must die and he does. Davisd apparently rationalises all this.
However when Nathan confronts him with his sinful acts David immediately repents. He knows and says he has sinned against God.

On the other hand Trump has said he has nothing to repent of. This clearly shows he is an unrepentant sinner.
It seems some in the evangelical movement have become like the Jews of the Old Testament and are now imitating the secular world.
In other worlds they are neither arthur nor martha!

It is all very sad. The question is whether those are truly Evangelical will escape from this and still be able to spread God's message.

Let us hope so

Thursday, 12 April 2018

Around the Traps 13/4/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 11 April 2018

Israel Folau should stay off twitter

Israel Folau is in trouble because he answered a question on twitter.

He was asked what happens to gays.

He said they  go to hell unless they repent. This is a true statement but twitter does not enable a person to write all there needs to be on the subject. The best you can hope for is that a person may give you good links on various topics like the late great Mark Colvin did.( Soony please take note).

We really should say to say this answer was homophobic or hate speech is simply ridiculous.

 Israel should have done a few things which would have added to his answer IMHO.

Firstly ALL people need to repent if they do not wish to go to hell. Heterosexuals and homosexuals alike.
Secondly it is the ACT of homosexuality that is sinful not being attracted to the same sex.

Thirdly he should have said it equally applies to heterosexuals who indulge in fornication and.or adultery.
There is a lot more of them. ( Given homosexuals are only less than 2% of the population I have always wondered why the time and effort decrying homosexuals and little done towards fornication and adultery which is rife in our society and growing unlike homosexuality).

In most cases twitter is used by people to keep them in the public spotlight. Hence why journos. politicians, actors and actresses and of course sports people are wide users of twitter.

I would give twitter away Israel!
This is very good. This is what he should have linked to. you cannot do this on twitter!