Thursday, 28 April 2016

Around the Traps 29/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk





Wednesday, 27 April 2016

What does the CPI tells us?

The March CPI was released yesterday.It fell which is very unusual. We had deflation not inflation.
Deflation is usually occurs for one of two reasons.
1) Innovation makes lots of goods and services cheaper and you have strong economic growth.
2) The economy is weak and so is demand for goods and services.

most people would think 2) is more appropriate now than 1). however it would be at odds with the labour market for example. Thus policy makers are in a dilemma.
Some indicators show the economy needs to be jump started whilst others show the opposite. The RBA will be in a quandary next Tuesday.

Steve from Brisbane again remembers Sinclair Davidson infamous prediction of stagflation occurring in Australia..

I would make two observations on this. Davidson's informal model   when making this prediction was hopeless even allowing for the fact most people have stagflation being inflation and unemployment being if not then very close to double digits. We were not within cooee of that.

Davidson had no idea of how stagflation occurred in the 1970s. At that time we had a large supply side shock ( very high oil prices) and a highly regulated labour market. Neither of those two circumstances were in evidence when Davidson made his ludicrous prediction.
If only he was a economist!



Monday, 25 April 2016

The US election and the Fed.


Carola Binder has a typically very good article on the Presidential candidates and Fed accountability.

It is well worth a read!

Sunday, 24 April 2016

The Mighty Mighty Wanderers

In the midst of the best ever A league season we had tow mighty semi-finals. Adelaide were superb in their demolition of Melbourne city.

HOWEVER the Wanderers were sublime in the 5-4 defeat of the roar.

What a game. What an atmosphere.The RBB were simply the best.
I did not want to leave.

Indeed the RBB are world class at installing the best atmosphere at football games.

now for the final in Adelaide.

Thursday, 21 April 2016

Around the Traps 22/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk



Wednesday, 20 April 2016

poll update

First of all I have been quite busy of late so limited writings.More of that later perhaps

However this must be talked about. Naturally Kevin Bonham is a must read.As is Mark the Ballot

The libs would still win but there would be no joint sitting!!

A few points on the polls.


  • People like Malcolm when he was above the fray both as Opposition leader and now as PM. They decidedly get less impressed when he gets down and dirty into politics. They do not like Abbott impersonations!  This is not the biggest thing in his slide but it is relevant.
  • I see Essential have Chris Bowen beating Scott Morrison as who the public would like as Treasurer. He does not appear to be on top of his portfolio nor does he appear different to when he fronted up as Immigration minister.Bluster does not get you far as a Treasurer. No more thoughts od Scott as a potential leader now.
  • Those on the 'right' do not like Turnbull at all and treat him almost as the Leader of the ALP. Whether it be Andrew Bolt , Alan Jones et al. A Liberal loss would boost their 'significance'!
I should have added three more things
  1.  These polls have been conducted when people know there will be a July 2 election
  2.  Political strategists hate winter polls. If the day is cold and even rainy they think it exacerbates swings against the government Ye they are superstitious!
  3. A long campaign is not good for governments. Think Bob Hawke and 1984. Can Turnbull do better than Hawke and can his team learn from it?



Thursday, 14 April 2016

Around the Traps 15/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk