Thursday, 28 July 2016

Around the Traps 29/7/16

It is time for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( ie mostly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( ie econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 27 July 2016

The ALP is in the box seat

The ALP is looking good for the next election.
The reasons are myriad
Shorten is now seen as a credible leader.
Turnbull is still seen as being led by conservative forces and not being himself.
The conservative forces want to get rid of Turnbull with the major problem being no credible alternative.
The ALP has had an infusion of talent which might put under performing shadow ministers under pressure to perform.
The government has no program of policies to deliver
Medicare will be looked at with great scrutiny.
The big plus to the government is now the ALP can smell government they are morel likely to support budget repair measures providing they are fair. Thus the government will enact ALP policy in essence.

As Harold McMillan once said events change things. In 1998 we could have said the same thing but along came Tampa and Howard rode that to victory.
the question is could Turnbull rise such an event to power again and is the current ALP as over-confident of victory now as then.

We shall see

Tuesday, 26 July 2016

Michele Obama wows them

Just when Sanders delegates wanted to be Corbyistas ( although it must be noted most people who voted for Sanders will vote for Clinton and they have changed earlier than Clinton supporters did for Obama 8 years ago. ) along comes Michele Obama who in only 15 minutes gave a magnificent speech. It was the stirring oratory of her husband  but it didn't have to be.
She simply told everyone what was at stake, how to behave and how to campaign.

She is a very impressive woman..

Don't believe me. Then see for yourself courtesy of Brad De Long

Monday, 25 July 2016

Rising Energy costs in South Australia

Silly me. Here I thought the reason for rising energy costs in South Australia was their reliance on wind power.See Alan Moran's looney toones impression.

However I read the very sharp Hugh Saddler and find out no it isn't. It is mainly about natural gas.

Fancy Catallaxy being wrong and not knowing its subject!!

Sunday, 24 July 2016

Shorten dogs it

Bill Shorten was in a commanding position following the election but was unable to provide leadership.

Kim Carr is from a different era. He is an old fashioned left wing dirigiste who thus love intervening in an economy.If we were living in the 1940s or 50s he would be very much part of the political scene but now he is merely an economic dinosaur.

It is made much worse when Andrew Leigh one of the bright stars of the ALP suffered. Shorten has quite a bit of talent at hand. If he is smart and uses the skills he learnt from doing an MBA then he should be preparing for whom should be in his first ministry should he win after the next election.

Kim Carr would surely not be in that.

Thursday, 21 July 2016

Around the Traps 22/7/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 20 July 2016

Climate Change and Health

This morning Fiona Armstrong and Peter Doherty have an article examining the link between climate change and health costs.
Sehr interessant