Wednesday, 1 April 2015

the 97% consensus on climate change

hotwhopper has a lengthy and interesting article on the 97% consensus on climate change, Yet again Richard Tol does not come out of it looking very good.


Tuesday, 31 March 2015

No European medieval ice age

The pieces on the Vox wonk I put out in Around the Traps are really good.
One that caught my eye was by Morgan Kelly and Cormac O'Grada.
They demonstrated that the ice age never was. I also found out what the 'Slutsky' effect is as well.

Good reading

Monday, 30 March 2015

A tale of two States

We saw the Coalition returned to power in New South Wales whilst they got dumped in Queensland.
Why?  One obvious answer would be the leaders.

Campbell Newman simply exacerbated what people hated about Tony Abbott and vica versa. On the other hand Mike Baird most certainly did not. Although He looked very uncomfortable when he finally got some questions he couldn't answer ( see Andrew Elder).
Others like Ken Parish see grossly offensive ads without providing any evidence.
The idea of not wanting the Chinese Government not owning NSW electricity assets is hardly racist. As I say I really do not want any Government owning the Electricity assets (other than the NSW Government.)

Whilst the Previous ALP Government needed to lose in Queensland it didn't need to lose so badly.
On the other hand the ALP Government stank to high heaven.

It would not be surprising that voters in Queensland thought they went in too hard last time and voted against the Government thinking they would win anyway because of their huge majority.  In essence we might have got a variation of the Wayne Goss effect. They lost by accident because too many people made a protest vote thinking it would not matter.
Quite clearly the ALP never thought they would win and in fact did little work on what they might do if they did win in Queensland.  Quite clearly they didn't do enough homework on one candidate! ( see HERE and HERE)

In NSW no-one was going to vote in the ALP after what had occurred when they were in Government.As I said previously they stank to high heaven and quite frankly the Coalition deserved another term.

Different leaders and different results.Both in Government and in Opposition.


I have been asked for an opinion on two issues so I will give them

  1. A person should never have to leave any job merely on allegations.Most certainly if they are proved but as yet they are merely allegations that mysteriously only appeared AFTER the election.( Very strange that)
  2. If Martin Ferguson was deliberately involved in the Liberal campaign he should be expelled from the party. It would be the same if a liberal member openly supported an ALP campaign. You cannot be a member of a party and then deliberately assist another party. In this Bill Shorten is entirely correct.on this Steve Kates shows he is not only mad but entirely clueless.

Sunday, 29 March 2015

Bad Behaviour in sport

In my local competition where I have the pleasure of heading up the Umpires ( although I umpire in the Shires competition. Strange to be sure but that is what they wanted) we had poor behaviour  in the finals on the Weekend. This is a rarity but will be addressed. Reports will be completed on THREE matches out of five including the most prestigious A grade played on turf!

Then I found out quite late of homophobic slurs being used in a rugby game. I thought this very strange as these 'remarks' were directed at various players and I had not heard the team had a lot of players whom were homosexuals.
As it was the teams doesn't have a lot of homosexuals and the 'remarks' were directed to heterosexuals.  How 'homophobic' slurs can be directed to anyone but a homosexual is something on the Rugby Union administration can answer. It is bit like saying if you say someone is playing like a little girl it is a sexist slur.
Now a slur is defined as


vb (mainly tr) , slursslurring or slurred
1. (often foll by over) to treat superficially, hastily, or without due deliberation; gloss
2. (also intr) to pronounce or utter (words, etc) indistinctly
3. to speak disparagingly of or cast aspersions on
4. (Music, other) music to execute (a melodic interval of two or more notes) smoothly, as in legato performance
5. (also intr) to blur or smear
6. to stain or smear; sully
7. an indistinct sound or utterance
8. slighting remark; aspersion
9. stain or disgrace, as upon one's reputation; stigma
10. (Music, other) music
a. performance or execution of a melodic interval of two or more notes in a part
b. the curved line (⌣ or ⌢) indicating this
11. (Printing, Lithography & Bookbinding) a blur or smear ''
Obviously in this case it is number three that is being used.

In football I hand out yellow cards for derogatory comments.

This is defined as:


Something that's derogatory is insulting or disrespectful. If you make derogatory comments, that means you say things that are unflattering, unkind, or demeaning.
Derogatory means about the same as insulting. Derogatory language is meant to hurt, and it usually does. If you feel offended or insulted by what someone says, the person probably said something derogatory. Racial, sexist, and homophobic slurs are all derogatory. Insults that mean someone is stupid or crazy are derogatory. Making a joke about someone's mother is derogatory."

Thus I believe rugby union over-reacted. If the man was playing football I would have shown him a yellow the first time he said the comments and then the second time and hence he would have been shown a red card.

Thursday, 26 March 2015

Around the Traps 27/3/15

It is time for Around the Traps again. Will update over the week-end.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly but not only Stats)
Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 25 March 2015

NSW Election

I have been sick this week thus I have had the full glare of the NSW election upon me.

The Government should have a decent win on Saturday. This shows the electorate will vote for a party with an unpopular policy if the leader isn't a pretentious prat. Queensland take note.

The main issue is the privatisation of the poles and wires.Whilst both sides have been dishonest of the WHOLE issue I do think the government has been worse than the Opposition.
what has intrigued me is that in the last week Baird ha looked rattled when questioned on the issue.
He only seems a fair weather politician.
It could prove interesting next term.

I also watched  Federal parliament yesterday when doing the family ironing. Yes I am a new age man!

Three things stood out like the shag on a rock.

  • Abbott is in his last days, Asserting stopping the boats meant less arms and drugs in Australia was simply absurd.  He is poor under pressure as we have see since the election.
  • Bishop simply has no common sense. Fancy backing Twiggy Forest's absurd proposal. If she was ever in leader's contention she ain't now. just on that topic Judy Sloan shows she had too much peroxide this morning. Oh dear. At least she hasn't a reputation to damage!
  • The other Bishop is quite clearly the worst speaker in history. The ALP should so a highlights package of her and put it on youtube.