Sunday, 26 June 2016

Brexit, Mediscare, costings etc

We go into the last week of the election campaign and little has changed.

Brexit has occurred but no economic catastrophe.( NO markets or polls picked this the betting markets in particular.) At this stage it appears to be a one day wonder.
Normally the incumbent Government would gain except when you have changed Leaders nine months ago you can hardly say you are a stable government.
A bit surprising to hear if problems did occur Scott Morrison would reduce the deficit faster not slower. Does he really think contractionary policies would fix things. Obviously hasn't examined Europe at all.

I heard the ALP costings meant the deficit had ballooned out. They would run a deficit of 2.3% rather than 2.2% of GDP the Government prefers. In all reality there is no difference between the parties at all. Why are journalists  so gullible on this subject?

Mediscare was al about getting the voters to focus on Medicare and realise the Present government would destroy it. Well destroy is not privatise and the polls show it has not made any difference at all. Dennis Shanahan right again I see. Mind you neither has 'protecting our borders'. Andrew Elder right about out Journos again.

I unfortunately saw some political ads It seems to me the ALP's is more hard hitting  but hardly vote changing.

Bring on Sunday please

Saturday, 25 June 2016

Fatboy Slim

I know nothing about this bloke but I love this song

Thursday, 23 June 2016

Around the Traps 24/6/16 Brexit Edition

it is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 22 June 2016

The Myth of Austerity and Growth

Noah Smith has a great new article on the above title.

A few comments :

  • Why would Mankiw cite a 2002 paper and ignore all papers since then.
  • The paper he cites was co-written by Blanchard and Perotti. Both have now publicly recanted  their positions on this subject. No mention from Greg?
  • Blanchard and Leigh found fiscal multipliers much higher than previously thought.  Surely if expansionary austerity worked Europe would be in the midst of a boom!
  • THIS paper from long ago completely demolished Austerity. Ireland for example tried it THREE times yet it only worked once. It worked mainly because its main  export market the UK was in a boom, Their currency fell considerably and interest rates were cut a lot
  • Why is this witch doctoring still peddled?

Tuesday, 21 June 2016

Fake Tradie and all that

Okay I am late on this as I had never seen this ad but now I cannot miss this.

Elle Hunt has a great article on it.  There are so many things wrong in the ad I just wonder how it got past quality control.
Sinclair Davidson thinks this is an example of the ALP not knowing real people.

Hmm what is a tradie?  I would have thought a tradie is a person ,usually a man, who works as a tradie. i.e if he is an electrician he goes around and fixes electrical faults in houses or apartments or does the electrical work on buildings being built. This involves a lot of outside work. It means a man of 48 would have some sort of suntan and certainly would not have manicured nails for example.

The man in the ad obviously has not a clue about the numerous mistakes in it otherwise they would no be in it. so how can this be explained.

The man has tradie qualifications which he continual updates but he does little work as a tradie. A bit like a mate of mine who keeps up to date with his accountant qualifications but does not practice as an accountant.

Perhaps Sinclair has never met a tradie or perhaps he never noticed the numerous mistakes in the ad. nothing like knowing real people!


This raises  more questions than it answers. He certainly doesn't sound like a tradies working day in day out. This does as well. note he talks about his qualifications but not what he actually does. Why did he not pick up all the many faults? Why does he not know how to dress as a tradie?

Okay now I have had my fun I will have a rant.What in the hell does privatising medicare mean. If medicare doesn't make money who would buy it! How would it be privatised?

I have no problem in criticising policies that will get rid of bulk billing,  even wary of outsourcing services when patient information could be gotten by private sectors participants but privatisation.
It is a scare campaign based on nothing at all.
Stephen Duckett makes sense of all this?

Sydney Radio

A few weeks ago when I was sick I had time to watch TV and listen to the radio.

Well Julie Bishop put me off ABC 24 on the teeve.

I tried a few radio stations to see if any were interesting.

I gave up on Radio National. (the old 2FC) Sometimes interesting but mostly not.
ABC Local radio (The old 2BL) was like the curates egg. The World Today at midday was a must and Richard Glover in the afternoon was good but apart from that it was pretty boring. I did note they now have Wendy Harmer from 8.30. I simply could not take her seriously.

2GB was simply so biased ( the usual line here no such thing as climate change, the budget should have remained in surplus  nevermind the GFC or terms of trade etc ) that you listen to if you are part of that set but if not then it simply is not entertaining. 2UE was a 2GB lite station.
It was quite ironic that both stations regularly complained about ABC bias without EVER giving specific examples whilst going the full monty on their blast against the ALP. Greens and even Malcolm Turnbull. Yes Tony Abbott was always going to win this election. It is as the very bad polls never existed!

Luckily for me the Library was quite close so I could wander down there and borrow a few books to read.simply to remain sane.

A good way to identify bias is do people treat politician from different parties differently. Leigh Sales from 7.30 for example interviews Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten the same way.
On the other hand when ever Scott Morrison or Peter Dutton are regularly 'interviewed on 2GB it is a love in.

Monday, 20 June 2016

Why do we persecute the persecuted?

I am staggered at how BOTH parties treat refugees/Asylum seekers.

Most people who attempt to come here by boat  are found to be genuine asylum seekers. They are fleeing persecution in other words. There is NO such thing as an illegal asylum seeker.

There people should NEVER be put into detention which is gaol. This is simply persecuting the persecuted. It cannot be surprising there that THIS has occurred.

I have no problem in putting people into detention who are not genuine asylum seekers but the bi-partisan policy of putting genuine refugees into detention centres is a disgrace. It should be changed quickly