Thursday, 18 September 2014

Around the Traps 19/9/14 Almost Birthday edition!

It is time for Around the Traps.
Busy all day on Saturday. coaching in the morning and Umpiring in the Afternoon so updating will be on Sunday

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly but not only Stats)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox Wonk

Tuesday, 16 September 2014

Climate Change

I am outsourcing today's reading to Steve from Brisbane's blog as he has a number of interesting articles on climate change.
They are:

I agree with Jason Soon that Steve's blog is vastly under-rated and almost always interesting.

Monday, 15 September 2014

Iraq, Now and then

I doubt if there are many people who do not wish the policy goal of eliminating ISIS or whatever it wants to be called.
However there must be a main goal. The Allies must know what it is and this when it is achieved.

When The USA and other counties illegally invaded Iraq previously no-one knew why. The reason was unknown.Given this it followed there was little idea of when the military should leave the country.
We knew at the time Iraq posed little threat to its neighbours let alone to the USA or the UK. They knew they posed no WMDS. ( Howard was told by two Australian inspectors Iraq had no chemical weapons and then one day after being told that said exactly the opposite!. Read Greg Barton's book!).

It couldn't have been it was because Hussein was a 'bad' man because he was the only one toppled.
Hence we have no idea of the real reason for the invasion

In the end what resulted was the present mess.

This means Iraqi polity must understand they are one of the main ( but not only) reasons for the current problem.

We can only hope the current leaders are far more competent than the ones who lead us there in the first place!


Here is John Quiggin

Saturday, 13 September 2014

Kelly's Heroes

This was a great movie.

Clint Eastwood at his grimacing best, Telly Savalas, Donald Sutherland, Don Rickles, Harry Dean Stanton  the list goes on.

Here is the them song for that movie

Thursday, 11 September 2014

Around the Traps 12/9/14

It is time for Around the Traps.

Cricket season has started so updates on Sunday if I am lucky.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 10 September 2014

Cricket starts on Saturday

come Saturday cricket starts again.

I am now in my 13th year of Junior cricket.
I am a firm believer that a boy inculcated with the values of the spirit of cricket will have a head start in life. Accepting the Umpires decision will help him when he starts work. Understanding how the team works will help him again when he is employed.
The encouragement of team mates and no abuse towards opponents again so.

I am not only umpiring , in Shires, but for some reason the local Umpires have put me in  charge. It could be it is because their numbers have increased from around 2 to 8-10 depending on the weekend and the jobs of some of the locals.

All in all there is a lot of fun coming up.

Some prats put concrete where you put the stumps so over 2 dozen teenagers couldn't play today.

Thanks a lot!

Tuesday, 9 September 2014

Tony Makin makes a fool of himself

Tony Makin put out a paper for the Minerals council. In it he attempts to show the fiscal stimulus the Previous Government had actually made things worse.
No-one would be surprised that Henry Ergas, Sinclair Davidson and Judith Sloan all think it is fantastic.

Treasury responded and it was devastating

Just a couple of the clangers Makin made and the three amigos neglected to talk about:

  • Makin's understanding of the Mundell-Fleming hypothesis is  'ahem' limited
  • Makin calims export growth was the main reason.Except exports FELL. They just fell LESS than imports. That is why Net exports made the contribution to growth in the December quarter of 2008
  • Makin claimed the $A rose. It actually fell quite a bit.
This person has a job at a University and he cannot even do basic research!

Before finishing with this bit of academic garbage I should add Davidson is a believer it was monetary policy that caused the December quarter and following to be positive ( after he forecast it would be negative).
Now I did my Masters degree on Monetary policy. I have have never heard nor read of a lag so quick. Remember the RBA only started to cut rates in September. The other problem is these people will NEVER tell you the stance of Monetary policy and how they are measuring it. 
I can tell you some people  the RBA think this theory is absurd and the people expounding it simply lacking any understanding of how monetary policy works!  Amen to that brother.

added bonus Steve from Brisbane has his say.