Wednesday, 26 October 2016

Australia's state of the Climate

The Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have combined to produce another State of the Climate for Australia again.

A very interesting read.

  • More extreme weather is expected
  • CO₂ concentrations at Cape Grim passed through 400 parts per million for the first time in May 2016, and global concentrations are now at their highest levels in the past two million years.
  • There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a lengthening of the fire season in most fire-prone regions since the 1970s.
  • In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.
  • Australia’s oceans have also warmed, with sea surface temperature increases closely matching those experienced on land. This warming affects both the marine environment and Australia’s terrestrial climate, due to the large influence of surrounding oceans on our weather systems. Sea levels have risen around Australia, which has the potential to amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges.
  • warming in the global oceans now extends to at least 2,000 metres below the surface. 
  •  studies of record heat experienced during Spring in 2013 and 2014 have shown that the observed high temperatures received an extra contribution from background global warming.
It is a really good read.

Tuesday, 25 October 2016

Pauline Hanson

Way back in 1996 Pauline Hanson warned us that Australia was being overrun by Asians. She was wrong, badly wrong.

Now she is back she is saying Australia is being overrun by Muslims. Again she is wrong badly wrong. We are more likely being overrun by one nation voters than Muslims  ( There are more one nation voters than Muslims in Australia).

As Peter Lewis has shown most people have no idea of how many Muslims are immigrating to Australia. There is no excuse for Hanson to peddle such nonsense unless she is deliberately lying to garner political support. We can say her initial foray into politics was based on ignorance and prejudice.

There is no excuse this time.Moreover what idiot would attempt to put all Muslims in the same bucket. Does she think ISIL doesn't kill Shia Muslims.
Has she ever wondered why terrorism comes essentially from one sect of Sunni Islam?

I suspect Hanson research is done by Steve Kates!?

Monday, 24 October 2016

The Solicitor General resigns

For the first time in over 100 years the Solicitor General has resigned.
This was always going to occur after George Brandis the Attorney General issued a directive that ALL people who wished to be briefed by the Solicitor General must have his agreement.

We need to understand a few things.
Justin Gleeson who resigned has an eminent reputation in legal circles. George Brandis does not.
George Brandis is known for being a pompous git who is not known for his intellectual insights. He is also known for being an accident prone politician.
Indeed in recent times he has clearly misled both Parliament and possibly his cabinet colleagues on legal advice he clearly implied came from the Solicitor General when it did not.

Justin Gleeson clearly knew he could no longer work with George Brandis. Under most conventions Brandis would have resigned by now.

Whilst Brandis is still Attorney General the government will not get candidates of a high calibre to be Solicitor General that has happened in the past.
See Gabrielle Appleby

All this conforms this government is slowly but surely sinking into a mire all of its own making. It is as though tony Abbott was still in charge!

Thursday, 20 October 2016

Around the Traps 21/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again, Junior Rep cricket season on Sunday so the next five weeks will be tough to update

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 19 October 2016

Australia has nothing to fear from terrorism

That got in you in didn't it!

Greg Austin outlines his reasons for saying this.Interesting reading!

Monday, 17 October 2016

The Nominal GDP should increase

We have for some time been in a time of continuing terms of trade.
This lead to nominal GDP falling and continuing to be weak.
This lead to people feeling negative about the economy as well as having adverse impact on the budget because of the revenue implications.This originally started with the last ALP government!
now the worm has turned and most people are expecting the terms of trade to increase. If commodity prices are maintained at present levels nominal GDP could increase by between 2-3%.
This will lift living standards and  confidence.

Peter Martin has got most of it right as per usual. A caveat should be put in. When commodity prices rose after the GFC it had little consequences on revenue for the government and this perplexed Treasury as it continued to write about possible reasons why revenue had not risen as commodity prices rose.

Hopefully most people will learn the lesson that we live in the nominal economy not the real economy.

Thursday, 13 October 2016

Around the Traps 14/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Sorry about being late.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econmetrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk