Wednesday, 2 September 2015

The National Accounts

The GDP figures came out yesterday and they were quite weak.

The CBA economics team said this
"Over the past year the biggest contribution to the 2% GDP rise was household spending which explained 1.4 percentage points. Net exports added 1.0 ppts and general government contributed 0.7 ppts. Dwelling construction added 0.4ppts. The largest detractions from growth came from falling business investment, ‑1.3ppts and inventories, ‑0.3ppts.
Weaker bulk commodity prices, for iron ore and the coals, are restraining Australia’s main national income measure, nominal GDP, lower. So the nominal economy, the one we live and pay taxes in, expanded by  only 1.8% in 2014/15, the lowest annual growth since 1961/62, even weaker than in the last recession in 1991/92.'
The nominal GDP figures were less that the Real figures because the GDP Deflator was negative in other words overall the economy experienced deflation  of 0.5% in the June Quarter and the year to June.
If not for the public sector the economy would have fallen!
Here is Greg Jericho
Gosh wouldn't it be embarrassing if you predicted stagflation!. 
Speaking of embarrassing yourself.
Here is the ABS on estimating household expenditure on tobacco.
"The ABS estimates household expenditure on tobacco on a quarterly basis. To do this, the ABS uses aggregate sales data from relevant suppliers and deflates their values using a single price index for the cigarette and tobacco expenditure category. 

The number of cigarettes per packet is not picked up in the aggregate sales data. The price index used to deflate the aggregate sales data accounts for changes in quantities, including the number of cigarettes per packet. This results in a chain volume measure where the price impacts have been removed to obtain the underlying consumption expenditure of Australian households. 

The chain volume measure (seasonally adjusted) of household consumption for cigarettes and tobacco has declined 39% from March 2001 to March 2014.

The ABS does not measure or estimate the number of cigarettes consumed."
The hapless Sinclair Davidson criticises Greg Jericho for saying the constant price estimates are measuring volume. Just a pity he doesn't read what he links!
 He mightn't understand english though as he clearly did not understand what predecessor means even with a dictionary meaning.

Good grief he can't help himself

Let us make it easy for him. Changes in quantities means volumes. They infer it by deflating the current price estimates.pants on fire!

He really should study some basic economics. They teach this in first year!

Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Some climate articles

For reasons only known to them climate denialists like to say there is no hockey stick which was written about by Mann et al.

David Appell writes about 36-hockey-sticks-and-counting. 

And on the 97% supporting  the claim that CO2 is the main driver for climate change.

We have:

Tamino on 100%-consensus and

And then there's physics on spreading-misinformation-intentional-or-not

Monday, 31 August 2015

Bill Shorten is a very lucky man part two

Yesterday Dyson Heydon said he would not stand down as the head of the Royal Commission.
for a man who reputedly has a mind like a steel trap his reasoning was specious and pretty easy to refute. One wonders why he took so long to write it. It was so bad it has now has become a figure of fun.
Here is a reasonable take on the whole thing.Richard Ackland has a bit of fun.

For all the talk of integrity Heydon didn't show any at all.
Bill Shorten must be the luckiest man alive. Heydon's argument and the government's defence of him makes this increasingly a political event for any ordinary punter.
Any criticism it makes of Shorten he can shrug off as a biased decision.All futre people to appear before the RC can make the Heydon defence.

Looking at this in purely political terms the ALP never wanted Heydon to resign as he should have. They wanted him to continue so they can shrug it off as I have stated.

The next thing they want is a large swing in Canning but not large enough to win so Abbott continues as PM.

Bill Shorten has to be the luckiest Opposition leader ever opposing a first term Government!

Sunday, 30 August 2015

Steve From Brisbane was RIGHT

Very early on Steve from Brisbane called the Present Government as the worst of all time.

I am afraid the events last friday confirmed this.

Just remember this.
They inherited this from the previous Government.

Deficit as a % of GDP        1.9

Receipts as a % of GDP     24.0
Payments as a % of GDP   25.9

The latest budget figures ,which will be changed when MYEFO comes out in December, are.

Deficit as a % of GDP      2.1
Receipts as a % of GDP   24.0
Payments as a % of GDP 25.9

So the deficit has blown out ( Primarily because nominal GDP is so weak ( because of weak Terms of Trade) however since they poo pooed this in Opposition they cannot now give this an excuse!

They are getting more in tax than the previous Government ever did and are now spending as much the previous Government did without a GFC in sight.
The Kouk on debt

I was wrong Steve and you were right!

Thursday, 27 August 2015

Around the Traps 28/8/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Croaking Cassandra is now an adopted Aussie. No football or cricket so updating at leisure.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle  (Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Poll round up

More polls so another poll round up.

Here is :

Not looking good for the coalition at all.

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Q and A Much Ado about Nothing

I watched Qand A the other night ( or replay actually as I had a cricket meeting.)

I enjoyed the show and thought all the participants were interesting although Tony Windsor got to the boring stage quicker than the rest.

I have to say I completely missed the NAME of the tweeter. Not unexpectedly Katesy get his facts wrong again. It wasn't an anti-abbott tweet. It was anti-abbott name.

When I look at those damned tweets I just look at what is said like most viewers. I never look at the name of the tweeter.

I am not surprised this got passed whoever looks at which tweets to put on. You would be looking at the content not the name.

Indeed this raises the question what sort of person would look at the names of tweeters and why?

How to fix this up.

Get rid of the tweets. It is off-putting and doesn't do anything to enhance the show.


I see Greg Hunt is talking about the offensive tweer. He is as stupid and lazy as Katesy. The tweet was not offensive. It was the name of the tweeter! As I stated previously the person would have been looking at the tweet not the tweeter's name.

Further Update:

This has died a quick death probably for the reasons outlined.